美联储的AI困局：学格林斯潘是“死路”，不降息是“绝路”

Core Viewpoint - The current narrative surrounding AI is pushing the Federal Reserve into a dilemma, where following Greenspan's approach could lead to dangerous outcomes, while not lowering interest rates could result in severe market consequences [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The report from TS Lombard highlights two potential paths for the Federal Reserve: adopting a deflationary productivity boom similar to the 1990s or facing increased equilibrium interest rates due to significant capital expenditures [2][8]. - If the Fed lowers interest rates based solely on the expectation of AI enhancing productivity, it risks repeating the mistakes of the past, particularly given the current inflationary environment [2][5]. - Conversely, if the Fed does not lower rates, it may inadvertently push the market into a crisis, especially if inflation resurfaces as a primary concern by 2026 [2][3]. Group 2: Historical Context and Lessons - Greenspan's strategy of "cleaning up rather than intervening" suggests that the Fed may not actively burst asset bubbles but will respond post-factum [3][15]. - Potential candidates for the Fed chair are positioning themselves as successors to Greenspan, citing the AI revolution as a justification for lowering rates, despite historical lessons indicating caution [5][6]. - The dual legacy of Greenspan illustrates the Fed's challenge in balancing the benefits of technological advancements against the risks of rising equilibrium interest rates [6][8]. Group 3: Key Questions Influencing Policy - The report identifies three critical questions that will shape the Fed's policy direction: 1. Whether large-scale capital expenditures in the tech sector will be inflationary [10]. 2. The potential for AI to deliver productivity gains similar to those seen in the 1990s [12]. 3. Who will benefit from the productivity improvements brought about by AI [13][14]. Group 4: Economic Implications of AI - AI could act as a deflationary force if productivity increases while wage growth remains stable, leading to lower unit labor costs and potentially lower prices for consumers [8][12]. - However, a surge in capital expenditures driven by AI may elevate equilibrium interest rates, necessitating a careful approach from the Fed to avoid overly loose monetary policy [8][10]. - Historical data suggests that during the 1990s, wage growth outpaced productivity growth, indicating that workers may benefit more from productivity gains than corporations [12][13].