OpenAI，可能创造了历史上最快的烧钱速度

Core Viewpoint - OpenAI is currently facing significant financial challenges, with its operational costs far exceeding its revenues, leading to a deteriorating financial situation that necessitates ongoing funding to sustain operations [6][31]. Financial Performance Summary - OpenAI's quarterly inference spending is projected to rise sharply, with costs reaching approximately $3.65 billion by Q3 2025, while implied revenue is only expected to be $2.06 billion, indicating a cost-to-revenue ratio of nearly 1.8:1 [6][25]. - In the first nine months of 2025, inference spending is estimated at $8.67 billion, which is 2.3 times the total spending of $3.77 billion for the entire year of 2024, while revenue growth is only 75%, from $2.47 billion to $4.33 billion [8][31]. - The disparity between reported revenues and actual financial performance is significant, with a difference of approximately $1.2 to $1.5 billion, indicating that media projections may be overly optimistic [11][12][14]. Cost Structure Analysis - OpenAI's cost-to-revenue ratio has been increasing, with Q1 2025 reaching 2.01 and Q2 hitting a record high of 2.37, indicating a severe loss situation where the company spends more than it earns [22][23][25]. - The inference costs are expected to grow exponentially due to increasing model sizes, with projections suggesting total inference spending could exceed $12 to $14 billion in 2025, while revenues are expected to grow linearly [28][29]. - The financial health of OpenAI is in stark contrast to the perception held by media and investors, highlighting a significant gap between perceived and actual financial stability [31][32]. Industry Implications - The high inference costs raise concerns about the profitability of generative AI companies utilizing OpenAI's models, questioning the sustainability of the entire ecosystem surrounding large models [32][33].