国泰海通｜策略：美联储货币政策预期博弈加剧

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is to maintain a tactical asset allocation strategy, recommending an overweight position in A/H shares and industrial metals, a market weight in government bonds, and an underweight position in the US dollar [1][2]. Group 2 - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, with a tactical overweight view on A/H shares. The significant pressure on global risk appetite has led to increased asset volatility and panic selling, releasing micro trading risks. As the importance of economic growth at the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan increases and the policy window approaches, the market is expected to establish new expectations. The regulatory authorities show strong determination and action plans to stabilize the capital market. Factors that previously caused valuation discounts in the stock market have dissipated, and with tail risks decreasing and the stabilization of RMB assets, the Chinese capital market is in a cycle of valuation recovery and significant development, with considerable upside potential remaining [1]. - The demand for financing and the supply of credit remain unbalanced, leading to a tactical market weight view on government bonds. In the context of a correction in overseas monetary policy expectations, the central bank of China may take action to ensure ample liquidity in the interbank market. Although the bond market has seen significant adjustments, the unbalanced financing demand and credit supply remain an objective reality. Marginal improvements in liquidity may help stabilize bond market sentiment. Government bonds have a moderate risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [1]. Group 3 - The demand forecast has been revised upward, and trading momentum remains high, leading to a tactical overweight view on industrial commodities. Industrial metals, represented by copper, may be in a phase of supply-demand imbalance. Key demand drivers include construction, power grids, and electric vehicles, with structural demand also arising from AI computing expansion and grid modernization. The development costs and complexities of copper have significantly increased, reducing investment willingness, which may temporarily push up copper prices. Industrial commodities have a higher risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [2]. - The correction in US monetary policy and economic convergence have put pressure on the US dollar, leading to a tactical underweight view on the dollar. The Federal Reserve's adjustment of monetary policy guidance and the marginal convergence of the US economy have reduced the allocation value of the dollar compared to other currencies. However, the phase of de-dollarization trading has slowed down, and a weak dollar is not necessarily on a continuous downward trend. The dollar has a lower risk-return profile compared to other major asset classes [2].