国泰海通｜宏观：美联储降息预期再度升温

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the renewed expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, driven by dovish comments from several officials, which has positively impacted global markets, including a rebound in stock prices and a rise in commodity prices [1] Group 2 - In the global asset performance, major stock indices saw significant increases, with the S&P 500 rising by 3.73%, developed market stocks up by 3.41%, and the Nikkei 225 increasing by 3.35% [5] - Commodities experienced widespread gains, with COMEX copper up by 5.64% and London gold rising by 3.80% [5] - In the bond market, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained unchanged, while the domestic 10Y government bond futures price fell by 0.26% [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.71%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.44% against the dollar [5] Group 3 - The U.S. manufacturing sector showed growth in new orders, with a year-on-year increase of 4.02% in September [5] - The U.S. housing market saw a slowdown in price growth, with the national housing price index dropping to 338.25 and a year-on-year growth rate of 1.36% [5] - Retail and food service sales in the U.S. grew by 4.26% year-on-year in September, indicating a deceleration in consumer spending [5] Group 4 - The expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surged to 80% [5] - The European Central Bank's President Lagarde stated that current interest rates are at an "appropriately set" level [5] - The UK Labour Party's government proposed a "historically heavy tax" budget that faced a "technical leak" [5] - Japan's debt issuance plan has shifted significantly towards short-term bonds, with no increase in rate hike expectations from the Bank of Japan [5]