【有色】中国铜冶炼厂2026年减产有望兑现，继续看涨铜价——铜行业系列报告之十一（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the consensus reached by the China Copper Raw Material Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) to reduce copper production capacity and strengthen market cooperation to ensure the healthy development of the global copper industry [4]. Group 1: Production Capacity - The CSPT group covers approximately 70% of China's electrolytic copper production capacity, with a total capacity of about 1,422 million tons as of October 2025, and CSPT members collectively account for over 1,000 million tons per year [5]. Group 2: Copper Mining - The reduction in copper mining is an inevitable result of supply disruptions in 2025, with several mines, including Kamoa-Kakula and El Teniente, lowering their production guidance due to various incidents, leading to a total reduction of 42,000 tons and 35,000 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which represents about 1.8% and 1.5% of global copper production in 2024 [6]. Group 3: Profitability - Mining companies are facing declining treatment charges (TC) due to tight copper concentrate supply and rapid expansion of smelting capacity, with spot TC prices at -43 USD/ton as of November 28, 2025, and long-term contracts dropping to 0 USD/ton, forcing smelting companies to rely on by-products like sulfuric acid for profitability [7][8]. Group 4: Inventory - As of November 27, 2025, global copper inventory reached approximately 67.6 million tons, the highest in nearly six years, with significant amounts being moved to the U.S. due to tariff expectations, which may exacerbate supply tightness outside the U.S. if disruptions occur [9].