【有色】中国铜原料谈判小组要求成员企业2026年降低铜产能负荷10%以上——铜行业周报（1124-1128）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a bullish outlook on copper prices due to supply shortages at the mining level affecting the smelting sector, with expectations for continued price increases in the future [4]. Supply and Demand - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 87,430 CNY/ton, up 2.07% from November 21, while LME copper closed at 11,176 USD/ton, up 3.69% [4]. - The China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) has reached a consensus to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% by 2026, indicating tightening supply [4]. - Cable companies have seen a continuous recovery in operating rates for four weeks, with Q4 expected to benefit from seasonal demand [4]. Inventory - Domestic copper social inventory decreased by 11%, while LME copper inventory increased by 2% [5]. - As of November 28, 2025, domestic port copper concentrate inventory was 723,000 tons, up 2.6% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 669,000 tons as of November 24, 2025, up 6.8% from November 17 [5]. Supply - In October, copper scrap imports increased by 7% month-on-month and 17% year-on-year [6]. - China's copper concentrate production in July 2025 was 138,000 tons, down 6.3% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year [6]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper was 3,544 CNY/ton as of November 28, 2025, up 869 CNY/ton from November 21 [6]. Smelting - In October 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, down 2.6% month-on-month but up 9.6% year-on-year [7]. - The current TC spot price is -42.70 USD/ton, down 0.4 USD/ton from November 21, marking the lowest level since September 2007 [7]. - In October, electrolytic copper imports decreased by 21.5% year-on-year, while exports surged by 542% [7]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw an increase in operating rates to 66.89%, up 1.21 percentage points week-on-week [8]. - Home air conditioner production is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year in December 2025, but is projected to increase by 14% in January 2026 [8]. - Brass rod production, which represents about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had an operating rate of 43.5% in October 2025, down 1.6 percentage points month-on-month and 7.8 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Futures - As of November 28, 2025, SHFE copper active contract positions increased by 13.4% week-on-week, reaching 218,000 lots [9]. - COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 43,000 lots as of October 14, 2025, up 9.1% week-on-week [9].