Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the anticipated return of a loose monetary policy in the U.S. and its implications for the dollar index and the RMB exchange rate, highlighting the impact of employment data and government policies on currency movements [2][5][28]. Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - In the first three quarters of 2025, the dollar index showed a trend of decline followed by stabilization, with a significant drop of over 10% in the first half of the year due to concerns over U.S. economic stability and soft employment data [2][5]. - The dollar index stabilized in the second half of 2025 after the U.S. reached tariff agreements with trade partners, reducing market concerns about economic stability [2][5]. - The article predicts that the dollar index may break below its long-term upward trend line in 2026, entering a new phase as the market adjusts to a potentially lower interest rate environment [16][28]. Group 2: Employment Market and Monetary Policy - The U.S. employment market is showing signs of weakness, with PMI employment components consistently below 50 since April 2025, indicating a reduction in hiring across various sectors [6][7]. - The article suggests that the softening employment market may trigger a return to loose monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve likely to lower interest rates to support job growth [5][11]. - The influence of the U.S. government on the Federal Reserve is expected to increase, potentially leading to more aggressive rate cuts if a pro-Trump candidate is appointed as the next Fed chair [11][29]. Group 3: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB appreciated approximately 3.2% against the dollar as of November 28, 2025, following a period of depreciation due to tariff pressures [19][21]. - The article attributes the RMB's strength to a combination of internal and external factors, including a restructuring of the international monetary system and improved resilience in China's financial markets [21][27]. - It is anticipated that the RMB will continue to appreciate moderately against the dollar in 2026, supported by a favorable external environment and the ongoing internationalization of the RMB [28][33]. Group 4: Risks and Uncertainties - The article identifies several risks that could affect the dollar and RMB exchange rates, including potential government shutdowns, tariff rate fluctuations, and increased volatility in risk assets [12][13]. - The upcoming U.S. midterm elections and political changes in other countries may also contribute to market volatility, impacting currency valuations [12][13]. - The article notes that the preference of the Trump administration for a weaker dollar could further support non-dollar currencies, including the RMB [29][30].
中金2026年展望 | 汇率：宽松交易或回归