中金 | 12月行业配置：风格切换不易，成长阶段占优

Industry Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations in November, with a brief "high to low" style switch that lacked clarity in the main themes, while dividend stocks showed slight relative performance [2] - Global stock markets saw declines, influenced by fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and concerns over potential AI asset bubbles [2] - The outlook suggests that style switching may not be sustainable in the short term, with a focus on large-cap growth styles until early next year [2] Energy and Basic Materials - The "anti-involution" policy is advancing, leading to a divergence in demand between old and new economies, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pace under observation [2] - Prices for various commodities showed mixed performance: thermal coal up 6%, lithium carbonate up 16%, while coking coal and iron ore prices fell by 17% and 1% respectively [2] - The U.S. government has resumed operations, alleviating some liquidity concerns, but the job market remains resilient, warranting attention to future Federal Reserve meetings [2] Industrial Products - The domestic real estate chain remains weak, while emerging markets present significant opportunities for exports [3] - In October, domestic excavator sales grew by 2% year-on-year, while export sales increased by 13% [3] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen a slowdown in price increases, with prices for polysilicon and solar cells remaining stable month-on-month [3] Consumer Products - Traditional consumer sectors are struggling, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being gradually introduced [4] - Home appliance sales have declined significantly, with washing machines, refrigerators, and air conditioners down by 23%, 27%, and 24% year-on-year respectively [4] - The Central Committee has emphasized the need to stimulate consumption, with plans to create three trillion-level consumption sectors by 2027 [4] Technology - Continuous innovation in AI applications is noted, with domestic models progressing steadily [5] - The technology sector's leading stocks faced adjustments in November, but companies in communication equipment are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditure in North America [5] - The gaming sector remains robust, with 166 game licenses issued in October, maintaining a high level [5] Financial Sector - Bank stocks are attracting long-term capital due to their high dividend yields and stable earnings [6] - The insurance sector saw an 8% year-on-year increase in premium income in October, with total assets growing by approximately 16% [6] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market fell to 1.9 trillion yuan in November, indicating a decline in market activity [6] Real Estate - The focus remains on destocking and debt reduction, with significant policy support anticipated [6] - In November, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities fell by 36% year-on-year, although it rose by 1% month-on-month [6] - The price index for new and second-hand residential properties in 70 major cities declined by 2.6% and 5.4% year-on-year respectively [6] Recommendations - Focus on AI applications, particularly in domestic computing power, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure, as well as sectors like innovative drugs and energy storage [7] - Certain non-ferrous metals are expected to benefit from global monetary order restructuring and demand recovery [7] - Export performance is currently stronger than domestic demand, with companies in sectors like electrical equipment and engineering machinery showing promising prospects [7]