半导体行业观察·2025-12-02 01:37Core Viewpoint - The expansion of Google's TPU ecosystem is reshaping the HBM market, consolidating competition primarily between Samsung and SK Hynix, while Micron has effectively exited the ASIC market due to capacity constraints [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Google's TPU ecosystem is reducing the global HBM supply chain competition to Samsung and SK Hynix, as Micron's capacity limitations hinder its participation [1][2]. - Micron's monthly wafer-level HBM production capacity is approximately 55,000 wafers, significantly lower than Samsung's 150,000 and SK Hynix's 160,000, making it unable to meet the demands of major clients like Google and NVIDIA [2][6]. - The competition in the HBM market is intensifying as Google's TPU challenges NVIDIA's dominance, which has historically controlled 90% of the AI accelerator market [4][5]. Group 2: Future Projections - Analysts predict that the situation will change with the mass production of Google's TPU starting next year, with Samsung expected to double its supply to Google compared to this year [3][6]. - The demand for HBM is anticipated to surge due to the increasing competition between GPU and ASIC industries, with projections indicating a supply shortage by 2027 [6]. - Micron plans to build a new factory in Hiroshima, Japan, to produce next-generation HBM, aiming to catch up with SK Hynix technologically [7].