【广发宏观王丹】从11月PMI的行业结构看目前资产定价特征

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the divergence in industrial prosperity in November, with manufacturing and construction PMIs rising while the service sector PMI fell below 50 for the first time this year, dragging the composite PMI down to its lowest point of the year [5][6]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI in November was reported at 49.2, a slight increase of 0.2 points month-on-month, while the construction PMI rose by 0.5 points to 49.6 [5][19]. - Emerging manufacturing sectors showed significant activity, with electrical machinery, specialized equipment, and pharmaceuticals experiencing month-on-month increases of 6.7, 1.0, and 2.7 points respectively, driven by demand in power batteries and energy storage [10][11]. - Commodity price fluctuations impacted the sector, with the non-ferrous smelting industry PMI rising by 4.1 points, while the petroleum refining sector saw a significant decline of 20.2 points [10][11]. - The chemical industry PMI increased by 2.0 points, reflecting demand from new energy and AI sectors, alongside price stabilization measures in certain products [10][11]. - Policy-driven financial tools contributed to a 5.1 point increase in the non-metallic industry PMI, with signs of price stabilization in cement observed in late November [10][11]. Absolute Prosperity Levels - The automotive industry recorded the highest prosperity level, exceeding 60, despite a year-on-year decline in passenger car sales due to high base effects; however, cumulative growth for the year remains strong [14]. - The pharmaceutical and non-metallic mineral sectors maintained prosperity levels above 55, correlating with the flu season and stabilized cement prices [14]. - The computer communication electronics and non-ferrous sectors are in the expansion zone, with prosperity levels above 60%, influenced by the AI industry chain [14]. High-Tech Industries - High-tech manufacturing continues to lead, with PMIs for high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing, and high-energy-consuming industries reported at 50.1, 49.8, 49.4, and 48.4 respectively [17]. - The high-tech manufacturing PMI has remained above 50 for ten consecutive months, although the ratio of high-tech manufacturing to high-energy-consuming industries has shown a marginal decline over the past two months [17]. Emerging Industries - The new energy vehicle sector has the highest prosperity level, while the new generation information technology and biotechnology sectors also maintain leading positions, with the former staying above 55 for three consecutive months [18]. - Compared to September, both the biotechnology and new energy vehicle sectors saw significant improvements, exceeding 5 points [18]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The real estate and infrastructure sectors continue to show divergence, with infrastructure seeing improvements in new orders, while the real estate sector remains weak, with declining activity indices [18][23]. - The construction industry is expected to reach its peak in the first quarter of 2026, with business activity expectations showing significant upward trends [18][21]. Service Sector - The service sector PMI fell to 49.5, marking a decline of 0.7 points, with significant drops in travel-related services and the impact of the "Double Eleven" e-commerce promotions fading [24][23]. - Despite the overall contraction, emerging service industries such as internet and software information, telecommunications, and financial services continue to show signs of expansion [24][23].