央行“轮流砸盘”

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on December 1 has significantly increased the likelihood of an interest rate hike at the upcoming monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, with market expectations shifting dramatically from 20% to 80% for a rate increase [1][3][9]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Ueda's remarks, Japanese government bond yields surged to recent highs, and the USD/JPY exchange rate fell due to a narrowing interest rate differential [3]. - Bitcoin, often seen as a barometer for carry trades, quickly retraced gains made over the past ten days, reflecting market anxiety about potential rate hikes [3][12]. Group 2: Diverging Views on Rate Hike - Morgan Stanley has shifted its stance to view a December rate hike as the baseline scenario, citing Ueda's unusual direct mention of the upcoming meeting and improved economic uncertainty in the U.S. [5][9]. - Conversely, Goldman Sachs remains cautious, suggesting that the Bank of Japan may need to wait for more corporate wage data, with a January rate hike being more likely [5][10]. Group 3: Ueda's Optimistic Signals - Ueda's speech highlighted improving conditions for policy normalization, particularly in wage growth, with indications that major labor unions are targeting salary increases of 5% or more [8]. - He expressed optimism about recent economic data, viewing a temporary negative GDP growth in Q3 2025 as a technical adjustment rather than a sign of a downturn [8]. - Ueda noted that inflation trends are evolving, with price increases beginning to resemble patterns seen in the early 1990s, suggesting a potential shift in long-term inflation dynamics [8]. Group 4: Risks of Rate Hike Timing - The market's fear of a December rate hike is compounded by the timing, as liquidity typically decreases around the Christmas holiday, which could amplify market reactions to unexpected policy changes [12]. - Historical parallels are drawn to December 2022, when the Bank of Japan unexpectedly adjusted its yield curve control policy, leading to significant market turmoil [12].