2026美国经济展望：要股票还是要选票？（国金宏观钟天）

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. economy in 2026 is expected to operate in a state of imbalance, balancing between stock market performance and electoral votes, with a widening gap between AI-related sectors and the real economy [1][3][109] Economic Structure: K-Shaped Economy - The K-shaped economic structure will further strengthen the upper tier while the lower tier continues to seek a bottom, with a growing divide between AI and non-AI sectors [6][70] - The share of equity assets in net assets has increased significantly, contributing approximately $20 trillion to wealth growth from Q1 2023 to Q2 2025, with financial assets rising to 30% of total assets [7][70] - AI-related investments are expected to drive GDP growth significantly, with a projected contribution of 1.57 percentage points to U.S. GDP growth in the first half of 2025, surpassing private consumption [9][70] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The risk of "re-inflation" is a major concern for the U.S. economy, driven by continued monetary easing and fiscal policies aimed at winning midterm elections [5][102] - Core CPI is expected to show a low point in Q1 2026, followed by a gradual increase, with the Fed's 2% inflation target likely unattainable in a non-recessionary environment [4][30] - Different inflation scenarios have been proposed, including a baseline scenario where core CPI gradually rises to 0.3% by Q4 2026 [31][32] Fiscal Policy: Focus on Midterm Elections - Fiscal policy will be heavily influenced by the upcoming midterm elections, with a projected deficit rate of over 6% in 2026, potentially approaching 7% [52][54] - The implementation of the "Great Beautiful Act" is expected to provide significant fiscal stimulus, with tax reductions estimated to lower corporate tax burdens by approximately $137 billion [55][61] - Individual tax incentives from the same act are projected to yield around $600 billion in benefits for households [59][64] Economic Outcomes: Deepening Supply-Demand Contradictions - The U.S. economy is likely to face a more pronounced state of stagflation, with monetary and fiscal policies only supporting the lower tier of the K-shaped economy without addressing income and distribution imbalances [70][102] - Key supply-demand contradictions will emerge, particularly in labor, industrial structure, and development entities [71][70] Risks: AI Narrative and Macro Environment - The sustainability of AI-related expenditures is a significant risk, with major tech companies facing increasing reliance on external financing [96][99] - The U.S. economy may experience extreme conditions, either too cold or too hot, leading to re-inflation risks that could further challenge the AI narrative [102][108]