【申万宏源策略 | 一周回顾展望】春季行情的幅度和定位

Core Viewpoint - The market has experienced a rebound after a significant decline, but the adjustment in technology growth stocks regarding cost-effectiveness issues is still ongoing, with the adjustment magnitude having surpassed half but the time insufficient for a complete recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The current market is within the "two-phase bull market" framework, with the first phase at a high level. The AI industry chain is experiencing a trend that has not yet concluded, leading to a situation where the cost-effectiveness of mid and small-cap stocks is temporarily insufficient [2][3]. - Historical experience suggests that when technology adjustments approach the bull-bear boundary, it may indicate a mid-term bottom area. However, the challenge lies in waiting for industrial catalysts and performance validation to digest valuations [2][3]. - The adjustment in technology growth stocks has reached over half of its potential, but the time required for a complete adjustment remains a challenge. A significant recovery in long-term cost-effectiveness may signal the resumption of an upward trend [2][3]. Group 2: Spring Market Outlook - The spring market is positioned as a potential rebound phase within the high-level adjustment of the bull market 1.0. The overall market adjustment pressure is limited, leaning towards this scenario [4]. - There are two potential scenarios for the spring market: it may either be a rebound within the high-level adjustment phase or a transition from the adjustment phase to a bottoming phase [4]. - The spring market is expected to see effective rebounds in offensive assets (technology and cyclical sectors), but upward breakthroughs may be challenging due to high supply growth and limited improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The "policy bottom" may be validated earlier, and cyclical price increases could serve as the foundation for the spring market, with a focus on basic chemicals and industrial technology sectors [4]. - Technology stocks are likely to experience a general rebound as their adjustment magnitude reaches a critical point. Key areas to watch include innovative pharmaceuticals and national defense industries, as well as AI computing power, storage, energy storage, and robotics [4][6]. - The Hong Kong stock market continues to exhibit high beta characteristics, with the Hang Seng Technology index showing more substantial adjustments and potential for a more elastic rebound [4].