深度专题|2026年：财政货币政策展望

Group 1: Policy Review for 2025 - Fiscal policy shows increased strength, with a historical high financing scale of 14.36 trillion yuan, accounting for 10.2% of GDP [1][8] - General fiscal expenditure grew by 7.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a high expenditure intensity [11][12] - The government adopted a proactive approach with a front-loaded expenditure rhythm, reflecting a clear intention to support the economy [14][16] Group 2: Monetary Policy Review for 2025 - Monetary policy returned to a "moderately loose" tone, maintaining liquidity at a reasonable level with low funding rates [23][28] - The central bank's interest rate adjustments were more cautious, with only one reduction of 10 basis points in 2025 compared to more significant cuts in 2024 [28][32] - Credit issuance was front-loaded, with new loans in the first quarter reaching 9.78 trillion yuan, accounting for 66.3% of the total for the first three quarters [32] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Outlook for 2026 - Fiscal policy is expected to become more proactive in 2026, focusing on economic growth, structural transformation, and comprehensive reform [61][62] - The deficit rate is anticipated to remain around 4%, with special bonds and new special debt slightly expanding compared to 2025 [61][63] - The expenditure structure will prioritize investments in social welfare and new infrastructure, while also addressing debt resolution [61][70] Group 4: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2026 - Monetary policy is likely to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, focusing on liquidity support and precise policy implementation [4][6] - The social financing scale is expected to increase, with M1 growth slightly rebounding due to fiscal input [4][6] - The central bank may implement one interest rate cut of approximately 10 basis points to ensure liquidity remains ample [4][6] Group 5: Policy Coordination and Structural Reforms - The central bank's operations in government bond trading reflect a flexible and prudent policy approach, with a resumption of operations in October 2025 [42][45] - Fiscal injections into commercial banks are aimed at stabilizing their capital adequacy ratios and facilitating monetary policy transmission [49][51] - Structural reforms will focus on macro tax burdens, central-local relations, and the sustainability of the social security system [3][61]