中金电新首席分析师曲昊源：固态电池产业化趋势明确

Core Viewpoint - The solid-state battery sector has gained significant attention and investment, with a notable increase in stock performance, particularly in the first half of the year, driven by technological breakthroughs and market sentiment [2][3]. Industry Progress and Investment Phases - The solid-state battery industry is currently transitioning from pilot production to mass production, with 2027 identified as a critical year for small-scale production [2][3][21]. - Investment opportunities can be categorized into three phases: 1. Concept-driven phase where the sector experiences broad gains [3][23]. 2. Process validation phase focusing on companies with promising technological paths and substantial orders [3][23]. 3. Leader establishment phase where investment should concentrate on companies excelling in technology, cost, and scalability [3][23]. Market Dynamics and Investment Recommendations - The solid-state battery supply chain is expected to see early benefits for equipment manufacturers, followed by material companies as production scales up [4][23]. - Key areas of focus include new equipment for isostatic pressing and dry electrode processes, as well as solid electrolytes and lithium metal anodes [4][23]. Technological Landscape - The main technological routes for solid-state batteries include polymer, oxide, and sulfide, each with distinct advantages depending on application scenarios [10][11]. - The hybrid solid-state battery is anticipated to see commercial application first, with significant potential in electric vehicles and energy storage by 2026 [10][11]. Safety and Performance Considerations - Solid-state batteries theoretically offer enhanced safety due to the absence of flammable liquid electrolytes, but challenges remain in addressing lithium dendrite growth and solid-solid interface issues [13][14]. - The expected energy density for solid-state batteries could reach 500 Wh/kg, representing a 60%-70% improvement over current liquid batteries, making them suitable for high-end applications [12][19]. Industry Advantages in China - China possesses systemic advantages in the solid-state battery sector, including a robust market demand, a complete supply chain, and significant technological accumulation [19][20]. - The country is expected to leverage its large electric vehicle market and established lithium battery industry to accelerate the commercialization of solid-state technologies [19][20]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Recent fluctuations in the solid-state battery sector reflect a cooling of market enthusiasm, despite ongoing technological advancements and production progress [21][22]. - The timeline for mass production and commercialization is projected to extend beyond 2027, requiring continued monitoring of key developments and market conditions [24][25].