DDR已被HBM超越

Core Insights - Major global IT companies are heavily investing in artificial intelligence and acquiring significant amounts of DRAM and flash memory, while smaller capacity PC memory and solid-state drives are facing price increases and supply shortages [1] - The primary driver of rising memory prices is demand from AI-related enterprises, with plans to double production capacity and processing power over the next three years [1] - Major DRAM suppliers have halted production of DDR4 products and announced price increases, leading to significant cost increases for PC manufacturers [1][2] Summary by Sections - Memory Price Trends: Memory prices have been rising since October, significantly increasing the sales costs for PC manufacturers, which are expected to raise new product prices by at least 20% next year [1] - Supply Chain Challenges: A procurement manager noted that memory price fluctuations have become more pronounced, with prices doubling every ten days, and even large companies may only receive about half of their orders next year [1][2] - Impact on PC Manufacturers: Major PC manufacturers are suffering losses as they have not reflected the increased costs of memory and solid-state drives in their product prices, leading to a situation where new PC products are already in a loss-making state [2] - Future Production Adjustments: The only solution to the rising costs is for major memory manufacturers to increase production of DDR5 and LPDDR5 memory, but they are currently focused on high-value products like HBM [2] - Market Forecast Adjustments: Global market research firms have downgraded their forecasts for PC shipments next year due to limited memory supply, which may lead to further declines in shipment volumes [2] - Distribution Model Changes: The distribution model for personal computers is expected to change, with no discounts on inventory likely until at least 2028, as manufacturers cannot afford to have excess stock while struggling to produce necessary products [3]