特朗普“影子主席”即将就位？鸽派悍将领跑，分裂美联储的内部战已打响

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential candidates for the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, focusing on Kevin Hassett as a leading contender and the implications of this selection on U.S. monetary policy amid a divided Federal Reserve [5][6][9]. Candidate Selection - President Trump has a candidate in mind for the next Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett being the most prominent contender among five potential candidates [6][7]. - The prediction markets show a strong consensus on Hassett's chances, with probabilities of 79% on Kalshi, 75% on PredictIt, and 63% on Polymarket for his appointment [7]. Federal Reserve's Internal Division - The Federal Reserve is currently experiencing internal divisions, with some officials advocating for further rate cuts to mitigate labor market risks, while others are concerned about inflation threats [9]. - The futures market indicates an 87.6% probability of a rate cut in the upcoming decision on December 10 [10]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The new Fed Chair will face a complex monetary policy environment, with discussions around simplifying the Fed's mission and the role of regional Fed presidents [11]. - Mohamed El-Erian supports the idea of a more restrained Fed, emphasizing the need for reform to better serve the economy [12]. Shadow Chair Situation - The article highlights the potential for a "shadow chair" scenario, where the new appointee may overshadow the current Chair, Jerome Powell, during the transition [14]. - Concerns are raised about the implications of Hassett's potential appointment, which could lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance, impacting the dollar negatively [15].