Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges of predicting market movements and the emotional responses of investors to their predictions, highlighting the complexities of market dynamics and the impact of central bank actions on bond and stock markets [1]. Market Overview - The bond market is experiencing a slight increase in intermediary fees, comparable to the impact of a stamp duty on the stock market when it falls below 3000 points [3]. - The central bank conducted a net purchase of government bonds amounting to 50 billion yuan in November, while the stock market saw a slight decline [5]. - The liquidity in the market remains balanced and slightly loose, with the central bank conducting a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 156.3 billion yuan, offset by 302.1 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 145.8 billion yuan [3][5]. Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The yield on 10-year government bonds opened at 1.828% and fluctuated throughout the day, reaching a peak of 1.836% before slightly retreating after the central bank's announcement [5]. - The weighted average rates for various repo codes are as follows: R001 at 1.36%, R007 at 1.49%, and R014 at 1.51%, indicating slight changes in the rates over the past month [4]. Investor Sentiment - Investors in the bond market expressed mixed feelings regarding the central bank's bond purchase announcement, with initial expectations of a larger purchase leading to a sense of relief when the actual figure was revealed [5]. - There is a growing concern among bond investors about the potential increase in intermediary fees for trading government bonds, which could further strain their profitability given the current low interest rates [5].
【笔记20251202— 债券交易涨中介费 堪比 3000点加印花税】
债券笔记·2025-12-02 13:24