中金2026年展望 | AI基础设施：“十五五”引领科技自立，AI硬件与应用繁荣共振

Core Viewpoint - The communication equipment sector has seen a significant increase of 79.0% as of November 21, 2025, outperforming the broader market, driven by domestic and overseas computing chains influenced by various factors including the release of DeepSeek R1 and North American AI expectations [2][4][7]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Focus on the "14th Five-Year Plan" which emphasizes innovation in the domestic AI chain and cutting-edge technology sectors [4][19]. - The overseas AI hardware market is expected to maintain high demand, particularly in AI ASIC and optical module sectors [4][27]. - The domestic AI industry is anticipated to witness more innovative applications, especially in automotive electronics benefiting from the deepening of intelligent driving standards [4][49]. Group 2: Market Performance - The SW communication index rose by 51.7% year-to-date, with the communication equipment sector outperforming the market significantly [7]. - In 2025, the domestic computing chain and overseas computing chain experienced alternating trends influenced by various market dynamics [8][27]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Hardware - The global server market is projected to grow significantly, with AI servers becoming a core growth driver, expected to see a 24% increase in shipments in 2025 [31][33]. - The demand for high-speed optical modules is forecasted to double, with the 400G+ optical module market expected to reach $37.8 billion by 2026 [34][39]. - The AI ASIC market is anticipated to see substantial growth, with shipments expected to double in 2026 [30][28]. Group 4: Policy and Strategic Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of building a modern infrastructure system, including a national integrated computing network [20][25]. - The domestic AI industry is supported by clear policy directions, aiming for a significant increase in the adoption of new intelligent terminals and AI applications by 2027 [47][48]. Group 5: Emerging Technologies - The satellite internet and low-altitude economy are entering a cluster development window, with significant advancements in satellite networking and applications [23][24]. - The integration of AI with IoT is driving rapid development in edge intelligence, with the AIoT solutions market expected to grow significantly [47][48].