GF SECURITIES(SZ:000776) 广发金融工程研究·2025-12-03 03:23Core Viewpoint - The overall macro analysis indicates a bearish outlook for equity assets, while technical analysis shows an upward trend with moderate valuation and capital outflow [1][2][8] - For bonds, the macro perspective is bullish, and the technical trend is also upward [1][2][8] - Industrial products are viewed negatively from a macro standpoint, with a downward price trend technically [1][2][8] - Gold assets are favored in the macro analysis, with an upward price trend technically [1][2][8] Macro Analysis - The macro analysis categorizes assets based on their performance under different macro indicators, indicating that equity assets are currently under pressure, while bonds and gold are favored [4][8] - The analysis employs T-tests to assess the impact of macro indicators on asset returns, revealing significant differences in average returns based on the trend of macro indicators [4][5] Technical Analysis - The technical analysis utilizes closing prices and various indicators to assess asset trends, with equity, bonds, and gold showing upward trends, while industrial products are on a downward trend [10][13] - The latest trend indicators for equity and bond assets are positive, while industrial products show a negative trend [14][13] Valuation Indicators - The equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 800 index is at 55.71%, indicating a moderate valuation level [17][18] - The analysis of capital flow indicates a net outflow of 102.9 billion yuan for equity assets, suggesting a negative sentiment in the market [21][22] Asset Allocation Performance Tracking - Historical performance data shows that a fixed ratio combined with macro and technical indicators yielded a return of 10.50% for 2025, with an annualized return of 12.00% since April 2006 [3][26] - Different asset allocation strategies, including volatility control and risk parity, have also been analyzed, showing varying returns and risk profiles [30][33] Summary of Views - The combined scores from macro and technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for equity assets, a bullish stance for bonds and gold, and a negative view for industrial products [23][25]