独家洞察 | 日本加息信号引爆全球债市，美债收益率重回4%以上

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan, led by Governor Kazuo Ueda, is signaling a potential shift towards interest rate hikes, with discussions planned for December 18-19, indicating a move away from the negative interest rate era and towards monetary policy normalization [1][4]. Market Reaction - Following Ueda's announcement, Japanese government bonds saw significant declines, with the 20-year yield rising by 5.5 basis points to 2.88%, the highest since June 1999; the 5-year yield increased by 6.5 basis points to 1.375%; and the 10-year yield jumped by 7 basis points to 1.87%. The Nikkei 225 index also fell by over 2% [3]. - The rise in bond yields is attributed to investors reassessing Japan's interest rate environment, leading to a sell-off of older bonds as the market demands higher returns [3]. Global Impact - Japan's position as one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds means that an increase in domestic rates could reduce demand for U.S. debt, potentially lowering its prices and raising yields. This shift is seen as a signal that the global tightening cycle may extend, reinforcing expectations for sustained high global interest rates [4]. - The increase in Japanese rates is expected to lead to a stronger yen, which could further diminish the incentive for Japanese institutions to hold U.S. Treasuries, adding upward pressure on U.S. bond yields [4]. Policy Outlook - Ueda emphasized that any adjustments to monetary policy will be gradual and will not cause sudden economic shocks. He noted that Japan's real interest rates remain low, and the current rate hike is a necessary step to stabilize inflation around the 2% target [5]. - Analysts from Nomura Securities are monitoring two key signals: Ueda's assessment of wage negotiations and any upward revisions to core inflation forecasts, which could indicate a more hawkish stance [5]. - OCBC Bank strategists suggest that while the market is betting on an imminent rate hike, the sustainability of the yen's rebound will depend on clearer policy guidance from the Bank of Japan [5].