纸浆涨超3%，连续两日大涨后怎么看？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in pulp futures prices is primarily driven by marginal improvements in the market fundamentals, following a period of decline due to oversupply and high inventory levels [4][17]. Supply Side - In October, China's pulp imports totaled 2.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.95%. However, cumulative imports from January to October 2025 increased by 4.79% to 29.674 million tons [7]. - The average operating rate for broadleaf pulp in November was 62.5%, down 7.7 percentage points month-on-month, indicating some production adjustments in the industry [7]. Inventory Side - As of the end of November, the total pulp inventory at major Chinese ports was approximately 2.031 million tons, an increase of 6.17% from the previous month, reflecting a growing inventory pressure [9]. - The import volume of pulp is expected to see only a slight increase in December due to ongoing high inventory levels and weak external market performance [9]. Demand Side - The average operating rate for various paper types in November was 61.29%, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.78 percentage points. However, production levels for life paper decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous month [11]. - The overall price performance of different paper types in November was mixed, with life paper prices slightly rising while other types like double copper paper continued to decline [12]. Market Sentiment - Recent market analysis indicates that the pulp market is experiencing a rebound due to the digestion of previous negative factors and the emergence of new balance, with cost support and improved market sentiment driving prices upward [17][19]. - Despite the recent price increases, the market remains cautious due to high inventory levels and the need for substantial improvements in demand to sustain long-term price increases [18][19].