经合组织最新预测：全球降息潮将于2026年终结！

Core Viewpoint - The OECD predicts that major economies will end their current interest rate cuts by the end of 2026, indicating limited room for further policy easing despite slowing growth expectations [5]. Economic Forecasts - The OECD expects the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates only twice before the end of 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% throughout 2027 [6]. - The OECD forecasts that the US economy will grow by 2% in 2025, an increase from the previous estimate of 1.8%, with growth gradually reducing its reliance on AI [8]. - The OECD has raised its growth forecasts for the Eurozone and Japan for 2025 to 1.3% each [8]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - The OECD indicates that many countries need to maintain interest rates above pre-pandemic levels to control inflation, partly due to high public debt levels [7]. - The organization suggests that Japan will steadily tighten its monetary policy as local inflation stabilizes around 2% [7]. Global Economic Performance - The OECD believes that the global economy has performed better than expected in resisting the impacts of tariffs, projecting GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.9% in 2026, and rebounding to 3.1% in 2027 [7]. - The OECD warns that a decline in optimism regarding AI could lead to sudden asset price revaluations, exacerbated by forced asset sales from non-bank financial institutions [8]. Fiscal Policy Recommendations - The OECD urges governments to address rising debt burdens during this relatively stable period, noting that only a few countries plan significant fiscal tightening in the next two years [8][9]. - Countries like Germany have room to increase debt and maintain high defense spending, but pressures to increase spending on healthcare, care, and climate measures will eventually exhaust fiscal flexibility [9].