人越来越少,房子越盖越多,这可咋办
集思录·2025-12-03 14:10

Population Trends - China's total population has been in decline for three consecutive years, decreasing from 1.41175 billion in 2022 to 1.40828 billion in 2024, with projections suggesting a drop to between 600 million and 700 million by 2100 [5][6]. - The population decreased by 850,000 in 2022, 2.08 million in 2023, and 1.39 million in 2024, indicating a significant shift from population growth to reduction [6]. Real Estate Supply and Demand - The real estate market faces a unique challenge as housing supply continues to increase slowly while the population is declining, leading to a potential imbalance between housing supply and demand [1][5]. - The ongoing construction of new homes, despite a decrease in the rate, contributes to a gradual increase in housing supply, while the demand is expected to decline due to the decreasing population [1][5]. Economic Implications - The decline in population and the increase in housing supply may lead to a scenario where ordinary individuals are less likely to be financially burdened by housing costs, which could be seen as a positive development for the general populace [7][11]. - The relationship between housing prices and population dynamics is complex, with some arguing that effective demand is more closely tied to purchasing power rather than sheer population numbers [15]. Housing Demand and Preferences - Current average living space per person is around 30-40 square meters, but there is a sentiment that people desire significantly more space, potentially up to 300-400 square meters, contingent on affordable housing prices [8][12]. - The need for improved living conditions, such as larger homes with amenities, is emphasized, suggesting that the real estate market has not yet met the evolving demands of consumers [13].