中金 | “十五五”科技展望系列报告一：人造太阳，聚变未来

Core Viewpoint - The inclusion of controllable nuclear fusion in China's 14th Five-Year Plan marks its transition from frontier scientific exploration to a strategic technological focus, establishing a foundation for commercialization and various applications in energy-intensive industries [2][9]. Summary by Sections Commercialization Drivers - The urgent demand for stable, clean, and high-energy-density energy sources is propelling controllable nuclear fusion as a core direction for energy transition [5]. - Continuous breakthroughs in key technologies, such as the NIF device's net energy gain and the mature application of high-temperature superconducting magnets, are advancing engineering validation [5][14]. - The number of private fusion companies globally has increased to 45 by 2024, with total financing reaching $7.12 billion, accelerating the transition from laboratory research to commercial application [5][14]. - Governments are creating favorable policy environments through legislation and funding support, paving the way for fusion energy development [15]. Industry Chain Collaboration - The upstream sector is seeing cost reductions and efficiency improvements in superconducting materials and key equipment, laying a solid foundation for commercialization [5]. - The main technical paths for controllable nuclear fusion include magnetic confinement, with Tokamak being the mainstream, and inertial confinement, with NIF as a breakthrough [5][16]. - Global investment in the fusion industry has surged from $1.9 billion in 2021 to approximately $9.766 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth of over five times in four years [5][14]. Investment Opportunities in Upstream Core Links - Key investment opportunities include: - Inertial confinement core laser systems, focusing on enhancing semiconductor laser chip power and efficiency [6]. - Superconducting cables, which are crucial for energy transmission in Tokamak devices, significantly impacting overall efficiency and cost [6]. - Monitoring and control systems, which are essential for plasma confinement precision and operational safety [6]. Technological Breakthroughs - Significant milestones in 2025 include the EAST device achieving a world record of 1,066 seconds of stable plasma operation at 100 million degrees Celsius [8]. - The establishment of the China Fusion Energy Company aims to integrate resources for the commercialization of fusion energy [8]. - The BEST device's precise installation of a 400-ton dewar base marks a critical step towards achieving the world's first fusion power demonstration by 2027 [8]. Policy Support and International Collaboration - The Chinese government has included controllable nuclear fusion in its strategic planning, emphasizing technological innovation for energy transition [9]. - International collaboration is exemplified by the ITER project, which involves 35 countries and aims to validate the engineering feasibility of magnetic confinement fusion [15]. Market Potential and Future Outlook - The global market for high-temperature superconducting materials used in fusion devices is projected to grow from $300 million in 2024 to $4.9 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 59.3% [35]. - The commercialization of controllable nuclear fusion is expected to enter the demonstration phase around 2045, with potential for commercial power generation by 2050 [47].