半导体行业观察·2025-12-04 00:53Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a dual-driven development trend propelled by demand and technology, with significant capacity expansions anticipated across major players in response to the AI boom and rising automotive electronics penetration [1]. Group 1: Global Semiconductor Giants' Capacity Expansion - SK Hynix is set to significantly increase its DRAM production capacity, particularly in the high-value HBM market, with plans to boost its 1c DRAM monthly output from approximately 20,000 wafers to 160,000-190,000 wafers by 2026, representing an increase of 8-9 times [3][4]. - Samsung is launching an aggressive expansion plan in both storage chips and advanced process foundry, aiming to increase its 1c DRAM capacity to 200,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026, which will account for about one-third of its total DRAM capacity [7][8]. - Micron is investing approximately $9.6 billion to build a dedicated HBM production facility in Hiroshima, Japan, expected to produce 100,000 wafers per month by 2028, contributing about 15% to global HBM capacity [12][14]. Group 2: Strategic Responses to AI Demand - The AI-driven demand surge has led to a significant increase in prices for high-performance DRAM and HBM, prompting companies like Samsung to prioritize external sales over internal supply to maximize profits [13]. - SK Hynix plans to increase its standard DRAM supply by over 10% in 2026 compared to 2025, addressing the ongoing shortage in the global standard DRAM market [4][5]. - The competition for HBM market share is intensifying, with SK Hynix holding over 60% of the global market and Samsung aiming to reclaim its leadership position through substantial capacity expansions [4][7]. Group 3: Long-term Capacity Planning - SK Hynix's long-term project in Yongin aims to build four wafer fabs, with total investments expected to reach approximately 600 trillion KRW, indicating a strong commitment to future capacity expansion [6]. - Samsung's plans include the construction of six wafer fabs in the Longyin semiconductor national industrial park, with a total investment of 360 trillion KRW, expected to be completed by 2031 [9]. - GlobalFoundries is investing 1.1 billion euros to expand its Dresden facility, enhancing Europe's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities and addressing local demand for chips [19][20]. Group 4: Industry-Wide Capacity Expansion Trends - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a broad capacity expansion trend, with upstream material and equipment manufacturers also increasing investments to support core manufacturing [28][36]. - The global semiconductor equipment shipment volume is projected to reach $33.66 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11%, driven by strong investments in advanced technologies [32]. - The expansion efforts are not only focused on production capacity but also on enhancing supply chain resilience and addressing geopolitical concerns regarding semiconductor supply [38][40].