螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板来啦：当前市场估值如何｜2025年12月份

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull and bear signals as of December 2025, and provides both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions [1][8]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator shows that the market is moving from undervaluation to a reasonable valuation, with a current level of 80% indicating a normal market [16]. - The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio percentiles for various market styles indicate that small-cap growth stocks have rebounded significantly, while large-cap value stocks remain relatively undervalued [18]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 2.57, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, with this ratio being above historical averages [20]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is at 24,667 billion, indicating a relatively cold market environment [23]. - The current trading volume percentile is at 79.10%, reflecting a higher level of market activity compared to historical data [5]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances has decreased significantly, which is typical during bear markets, and the high rate of new stock failures indicates a bearish sentiment [28]. - The M2 money supply is used to gauge market liquidity, with the current index indicating a low market sentiment when close to the M2 calculated bottom [30]. - The scale of old funds has decreased by 50-60% compared to 2021, indicating a lack of investor confidence in the current market [33]. - The issuance of new funds remains low, with recent peaks not reaching the levels seen in 2021, suggesting a cautious market outlook [38]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 17.78%, indicating that fund managers are cautious about market valuations [40].