光伏周价格 | 硅片进入筑底期，电池组件仍有下行空间

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the current challenges in the photovoltaic industry, including high inventory levels and declining demand, leading to price pressures across the entire supply chain [4][7][10]. Group 1: Polysilicon - The industry inventory exceeds 440,000 tons, with a continuous accumulation trend. Despite a reduction in polysilicon output, the demand in the off-season has weakened more significantly, leading to cautious downstream procurement [4]. - Short-term price stability relies on storage and expectations of anti-involution policies, but slow progress in storage and pessimistic rumors have weakened support. The reality of oversupply remains a direct risk for polysilicon prices, which may face downward pressure as the off-season approaches [5]. Group 2: Silicon Wafers - Current silicon wafer inventory has risen to over 25 GW, and despite production cuts by various companies, high inventory levels remain difficult to digest. Downstream battery manufacturers are cautious in their procurement, leading to a pressure on supply and demand [7]. - Leading companies are still adopting a price support strategy, but they face competition from lower-priced offerings from smaller firms, causing actual transaction prices to decline. Although there is a risk of further price declines, the cost support from polysilicon prices limits the downward space, indicating a potential bottoming phase [8]. Group 3: Battery Cells - Battery cell inventory has risen to 8-10 days and continues to trend upward. Domestic and international demand remains weak, with battery manufacturers generally adopting production cuts and price reductions, yet sales remain sluggish. However, the 210RN model benefits from strong order support from leading companies, showing relative resilience in supply and demand [9]. - The ongoing low-price orders from smaller firms are driving down prices for major manufacturers. Given the weak demand in December, battery cell prices face downward risks, particularly for the 183N and 210N models, while the 210RN model has some price support due to cost considerations and strong price maintenance intentions from manufacturers [9]. Group 4: Photovoltaic Modules - The end demand for photovoltaic modules has significantly shrunk due to the completion of northern concentrated projects and the off-season overseas. Module manufacturers are facing severe order shortages, and a significant reduction in production and holidays is expected in the first quarter [10]. - The price support from upstream battery price reductions is weakening, leading to continuous price declines for low-priced orders. The competition for conventional modules is intense, with inventory transaction prices hitting new lows, and module prices remain at risk of further declines due to the transmission of upstream price reductions [11].