研报 | 传统旺季与新品带动，2025年第三季度全球智能手机产量季增9%

Core Insights - The global smartphone production is expected to increase by 9% quarter-over-quarter and 7% year-over-year in Q3 2025, reaching 328 million units, driven by seasonal demand and new product launches [2] - Despite the growth, the tightening supply and rising prices of memory components may compress profit margins for low-end smartphones, potentially offsetting some growth momentum [2] - The overall smartphone production forecast for 2025 is projected to grow by 1.6% year-over-year, with a possibility of downward revision due to memory supply issues [2] Regional Market Performance - In China, the subsidy policy significantly boosted consumption in Q1, with an estimated annual sales growth of 2%, maintaining a 23% market share as the largest consumer market [2] - India ranks second with a 13% market share, benefiting from recovering demand, with an expected annual sales growth of 2% [2] - North America, the third-largest consumer market, is projected to see a 1% decline in annual sales due to a slowdown in demand after preemptive stocking by brands in the first half of the year, holding an 11% market share [2] Brand Production Rankings - Samsung leads with a production of approximately 63 million units, an 8% increase quarter-over-quarter, maintaining a 19% market share [3][5] - Apple follows with a production of about 57 million units, marking the highest production for Q3 in its history, benefiting from successful pricing and capacity upgrades of the iPhone 17 [3][6] - Xiaomi ranks third with nearly 45 million units produced, a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by new product launches and festive season stocking [3][7] - OPPO, in fourth place, produced around 40 million units, an 8% increase, supported by sales recovery in India, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [3][8] - Transsion ranks fifth with over 29 million units produced, a 9% increase, primarily driven by emerging markets in Africa and Asia [3][9] - Vivo, in sixth place, produced approximately 28 million units, with a growth of over 8%, aided by demand for mid-to-high-end models [3][10]