德银：“忠诚的哈塞特”若出任美联储主席，意味着什么？

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank believes that if Hassett becomes the Federal Reserve Chairman, there will be significant obstacles to implementing interest rate cuts, as the economic fundamentals may not support substantial easing by mid-2026, coupled with hawkish resistance within the Federal Reserve Board [1][4][12]. Group 1: Hassett's Potential Role - Hassett is seen as a "loyal" candidate favored by President Trump, who has expressed dissatisfaction with current Chairman Powell's monetary policy decisions [6][7]. - Hassett's background includes a PhD in economics and experience at the Federal Reserve, making him qualified for the role [9]. - His "outsider" status is viewed positively, aligning with calls for an independent review of the Federal Reserve's policies and operations [10][11]. Group 2: Challenges to Rate Cuts - The report highlights three major challenges Hassett would face in pursuing aggressive easing policies: difficulty in achieving internal consensus, economic fundamentals that may not support rate cuts, and a hawkish committee composition [12][13]. - By mid-2026, the U.S. economy is expected to continue steady growth, with limited downside risks in the labor market and inflation rates slightly above target [12]. - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board is largely hawkish, making it unlikely that members would agree to a clear easing stance, which contradicts the dual mandate of full employment and price stability [14][16]. Group 3: Market Implications - The report emphasizes that the anticipated "rate cut feast" may not materialize, and policy adjustments are likely to be gradual and restrained [15]. - The new chairman will need to demonstrate a commitment to price stability, especially given public calls for lower rates during the transition period [15].