“忠诚的哈塞特”若出任美联储主席，意味着什么？

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank suggests that if Hassett becomes the Federal Reserve Chairman, his initial policy path may be more hawkish or neutral than expected, creating significant uncertainty for those betting on immediate large-scale monetary easing [1][4]. Group 1: Hassett's Potential Role - Hassett is seen as a strong candidate to replace Powell, with the Trump administration favoring him for his loyalty and alignment with their economic views [5][6]. - Hassett's background includes a PhD in economics and experience at the Federal Reserve, which positions him as a qualified candidate [7]. - His "outsider" status is viewed positively, aligning with recent calls for an independent review of the Fed's policies and operations [8][9]. Group 2: Challenges to Easing Policies - The report highlights three major challenges Hassett would face in implementing aggressive easing policies: 1. Difficulty in achieving internal consensus within the Fed, especially given the current economic climate [10]. 2. Economic fundamentals may not support significant rate cuts by mid-2026, as the economy is expected to grow steadily with limited downward risks in the labor market [12]. 3. The Fed's committee is largely hawkish, making it unlikely for members to agree on a clear easing stance, especially if Powell remains on the board [13][16]. Group 3: Market Implications - The expectation of a "rate cut feast" may not materialize, with policy adjustments likely to be gradual and restrained [14].