【策略月报】由守转攻，布局高景气——2025年12月资产配置报告

Macro Overview - The U.S. labor market is slowly cooling down, with a high probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, maintaining a loose liquidity environment [4] - In September, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly better than expected, although previous months' data was revised downwards, indicating ongoing weakness in the labor market [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting rates in December, as the job market shows signs of slowing down, while inflation remains manageable [4] - Domestic economic pressures are rising, but the annual growth target of 5% is still likely to be achieved [4] - The fourth quarter GDP growth rate is expected to drop to around 4.5%, with internal demand pressures increasing, particularly in consumption and investment [4] - The overall policy environment is expected to remain stable, with less urgency for new policies, although there will be a focus on technology innovation and expanding domestic demand [4] A-share Strategy and Views - The market is transitioning from a defensive to an offensive stance, with a focus on technology and growth sectors [4] - Economic fundamentals indicate increased pressure, with investment and consumption declining, while price indices are stabilizing [4] - The liquidity environment is tightening, with A-share trading volumes decreasing as year-end activity is weaker than in the third quarter [4] - External liquidity concerns are easing, with improved relations between China and the U.S. and a more favorable external environment [4] - December is seen as a period for positioning ahead of the spring market, with expectations for a rebound in market sentiment in early 2026 [4] Industry/Style Focus - The market is shifting towards technology and growth opportunities, with a focus on sectors like AI, semiconductors, and new energy [4] - The volatility risk has decreased, and the market is expected to stabilize, making it a good time to focus on high-growth sectors [4] - The strategy includes a diversified approach, considering global assets such as Japanese and European stocks, as well as gold [6]