Alphabet 已做好引领整个 AI 竞赛的准备

Core Viewpoint - Alphabet has emerged as a significant player in the AI competition, with its stock price increasing by 65% this year, reaching historical highs after previously dropping to around $155 [1] Group 1: Alphabet's Unique Position in AI - Alphabet's unique position in AI is attributed to its development of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) since 2016, which form the foundation of its Gemini AI model [4] - The strength of Alphabet's TPUs is evident in their performance during inference and training, with Gemini 3 demonstrating significant capabilities and leading in benchmark tests [5] - Alphabet's vertical integration allows for faster model development and reduced training costs, with cost efficiency advantages of 4 to 6 times compared to Nvidia [6] Group 2: Revenue and Market Performance - Alphabet's Google Search revenue grew by 14.5% year-over-year in Q3 2025, with a market share of over 90% [9] - YouTube's advertising revenue also saw a growth of 12.6%, marking the fastest growth since Q1 2024 [9] - Overall revenue growth for Q3 2025 was 15.9%, with net profit increasing by 33% to $35 billion, resulting in a net profit margin of 34.2% [9] Group 3: Valuation and Future Growth - Analysts believe that Alphabet's historical valuation multiples should not be adjusted downward, with a forward P/E ratio of around 30 reflecting a 30% expected EPS growth for the current fiscal year [10] - The consensus EPS estimates for 2025 indicate a growth of 30.73%, with a projected EPS of $10.51 [27] - Alphabet's revenue is expected to grow at a rate of 13% to 18% over the next few years, with a reasonable price-to-sales ratio of 12 to 15 times [15][16] Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Strategic Positioning - Alphabet's capital expenditures are projected to be between $91 billion and $93 billion for 2025, with Q3 capital expenditures around $24 billion [18] - The high capital expenditure is viewed as a strategic necessity for maintaining competitiveness in AI, with Alphabet's vertical integration allowing for more efficient deployment of resources [25][26] - Despite high capital expenditures, Alphabet is expected to continue generating substantial profits and increase profitability year over year [26] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - Alphabet's comprehensive control over the AI value chain, from chip development to model deployment, creates a strong economic moat that competitors like Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia cannot easily match [28] - The market is beginning to recognize Alphabet as a potential AI winner, with significant upside potential in its traditional business and AI capabilities [12][13]