危机发生的本质，到底是什么？

Core Viewpoint - The essence of economic crises remains unchanged despite different appearances, characterized by excessive credit expansion, rampant leverage, collective greed, and subsequent panic [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Great Depression in 1929 occurred after the U.S. had already established a banking system, leading many to believe that such a crisis would not happen again [1][2]. - The U.S. was the first to enter a true consumer era, with significant industrial growth and widespread automobile ownership [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Dynamics - A hidden flaw existed when factory production efficiency outpaced wage growth, leading to overproduction and unsold goods [6][7]. - The introduction of installment payments transformed American consumption patterns, with 60% of cars and 75% of furniture sold on credit [12][13]. Group 3: Speculative Risks - The period from 1920 to 1929 saw the Dow Jones index rise by 500%, with widespread use of borrowed money for stock trading [17]. - Margin trading allowed investors to amplify their gains, but also their losses, creating significant risk when the market began to decline [18][20]. Group 4: Banking System Vulnerabilities - The absence of deposit insurance and the freedom for banks to invest in the stock market created systemic risks [30][32]. - A bank run occurred as depositors rushed to withdraw their savings, leading to widespread bank failures and a collapse of credit [36][39]. Group 5: Global Impact - The U.S. crisis transmitted globally due to the gold standard, affecting international trade and monetary policies [41][42]. - Countries faced a dilemma between monetary expansion to stimulate economies and the risk of currency devaluation [45][46]. Group 6: Recovery Mechanisms - The New Deal introduced reforms but was not sufficient for a quick recovery; World War II significantly boosted the U.S. economy by increasing industrial demand [47][49]. - The cyclical nature of economic events suggests that understanding these patterns is crucial for mitigating risks [50][52].