推动加息，日本央行如何“巧取”高市早苗

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan, under Governor Kazuo Ueda, is preparing for an interest rate hike, with market expectations pricing in an 80% probability for a December increase, driven by a consensus on the weak yen as a pressure point between the government and the central bank [1][3][4]. Group 1: Political Foundations for Rate Hike - Ueda's main challenge since the appointment of Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has been to clear political obstacles for the rate hike, with concerns over the yen's depreciation being a significant tool for persuasion [4]. - A pivotal meeting on November 18 between Ueda and Takashi led to a mutual understanding regarding the gradual rate increase to achieve price stability [4][6]. - The Finance Minister, Satsuki Katayama, expressed no opposition to the central bank's gradual adjustment of stimulus measures, indicating government support for the upcoming rate hike [3][4]. Group 2: Communication Strategy - Following discussions with government officials, the Bank of Japan's monetary affairs team worked overnight to draft a speech for Ueda, aimed at signaling policy intentions before the December rate review [5]. - The communication strategy included praising former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies and explaining the necessity of raising low borrowing costs for long-term growth [5][6]. Group 3: Future Rate Path Challenges - Despite the imminent rate hike, the central bank faces challenges in communicating its long-term interest rate path, with a lack of consensus on the neutral interest rate level [6][7]. - Current estimates suggest a nominal neutral rate range of 1% to 2.5%, creating uncertainty for investors regarding future rate increases [7]. - Market expectations indicate a potential rise to around 1.5% by mid-2027, while government advisors suggest maintaining rates at 0.75% post-hike until 2027, highlighting the divergence in views [7].