CPI同比或明显上行——11月经济数据前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The economic outlook for November indicates a decline in social financing and M2 growth rates, with fixed asset investment and real estate remaining low year-on-year. Consumer spending is expected to be weak, influenced by the decline in subsidy-related goods, while exports and production show resilience. CPI is anticipated to rise, creating a favorable environment for price recovery [2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise from 0.2% to around 0.7% year-on-year, primarily due to fluctuations in food prices, which are influenced by weather conditions affecting vegetable supply [3][10]. - The recent increase in food prices is likely to elevate the CPI baseline for next year, with the expected CPI tail effect for next year around 0%, higher than this year's -0.4% [3][11]. Group 2: Production and Exports - Industrial production is projected to grow at a rate of approximately 5.3% in November, supported by external demand [4][12]. - Exports are expected to increase by around 5% year-on-year in November, driven by a low base effect and resilient external demand, with manufacturing PMI new export orders showing improvement [4][13][14]. Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment is anticipated to decline by about 2.4% year-to-date, with manufacturing investment down to 1.7% and real estate investment down to 15.5% [4][17]. - Real estate sales are expected to decrease by around 20% in November, with cumulative sales area down by 8.1% year-to-date [4][18]. Group 4: Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth is projected to be around 2.6% in November, with essential consumption growing at 4.0% and subsidy-related items declining by 3.0% [4][22]. - The automotive sector is showing weakness, with retail sales down by 11.6% year-on-year in November [4][23]. Group 5: Financial Indicators - New social financing is expected to be around 1.6 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 650 billion yuan compared to the same period last year, with the growth rate of social financing stock expected to fall to about 8.3% [4][24]. - M2 growth is projected at around 8.0%, while M1 is expected to grow by approximately 5.6% [4][24].