中金 | 卫星互联网#05：商业火箭——航天发射新力量，可复用开启低成本航天时代

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the critical role of commercial rockets in achieving low-cost and large-scale access to space, highlighting the development status, technological pathways, and cost-reduction strategies in the commercial rocket sector [5][10]. Group 1: Global and Domestic Development of Commercial Rockets - The global demand for rocket launches is driven by the booming commercial space industry, with the number of launches expected to grow from 112 in 2020 to 263 in 2024, making commercial rockets the primary launch vehicles [5][7]. - Since 2014, domestic commercial rocket companies have rapidly developed, with several models achieving consecutive successful launches. Reusable rockets like Zhuque-3 and Tianlong-3 are expected to have their maiden flights in 2025-2026, significantly enhancing domestic launch capacity [5][16]. Group 2: Cost Reduction and Efficiency - Launch costs account for approximately 30%-40% of the total cost of satellite constellation construction. The commercial model has significantly reduced costs, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 achieving a unit launch cost of $3,000 per kilogram [5][20]. - The turnaround time for commercial rockets has been reduced to under 100 days, compared to the traditional 20-month cycle, making them more suitable for rapid and frequent launches [5][20]. Group 3: Reusability and Technological Advancements - Reusability is key to reducing costs, with the structure and propulsion system accounting for 60%-80% of rocket costs. Falcon 9's launch cost could drop to $1,270 per kilogram with ten reuses [6][27]. - New technologies, such as variable thrust liquid engines and the use of stainless steel instead of aluminum alloys, are being adopted to further lower manufacturing costs [6][35]. Group 4: Policy Support and Market Growth - The U.S. has established a robust legal framework for commercial space, fostering the growth of commercial rockets since 1984. Similarly, China's policies since 2014 have encouraged private investment in commercial space ventures [10][15]. - The commercial launch service market is projected to reach $9.3 billion in 2024, with the U.S. market alone expected to grow to $6.1 billion, more than doubling since 2021 [15][20]. Group 5: Future Prospects and Industry Dynamics - The domestic commercial rocket sector is expected to accelerate growth, with major models entering regular launch phases and reusable rockets set for intensive launches in 2025-2026 [16][20]. - The increasing number of satellite launches, driven by large-scale constellation projects, positions commercial rockets as the mainstay for low Earth orbit (LEO) launches, with Falcon 9 capable of providing over 2,000 tons of LEO capacity in 2024 [25][26].