美联储，突传重磅！高盛最新研判！

Core Viewpoint - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is increasing, with a strong likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in December due to weak employment data [2][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Traders are betting on further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Goldman Sachs indicating a high probability of a 25 basis point cut in December [2]. - As of December 5, the probability of a 25 basis point cut in December has risen to 87%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 13% [3][5]. - Goldman Sachs forecasts that the Federal Reserve may pause its rate cuts in January 2026, with potential further cuts in March and June, ultimately lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% [6]. Group 2: Employment Market Insights - Goldman Sachs reports a significant cooling in the U.S. labor market, with only 39,000 jobs added in September and new layoffs occurring in October [8]. - The unemployment rate for college graduates aged 20 to 24 has risen to 8.5%, a 70% increase from the lowest point in 2022, indicating a deteriorating job market for this demographic [8]. - The adverse employment conditions may negatively impact consumer spending, potentially leading to further rate cuts in the future [8]. Group 3: Concerns Over Federal Reserve Leadership - There are concerns regarding the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair, with analysts doubting his ability to implement rapid rate cuts desired by President Trump [3][9]. - Market participants express worries that Hassett's leadership could compromise the independence of the Federal Reserve, which is a significant concern for investors [9][10]. - Discussions among Wall Street investors indicate skepticism about Hassett's capability to gain consensus within the currently divided Federal Reserve Board [10].