铜承接多头大旗：申万期货早间评论-20251205

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends in various commodities, particularly focusing on copper and oil, while highlighting the geopolitical context and economic indicators influencing these markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Economic and Geopolitical Context - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of mutual understanding and support between China and France during a meeting with President Macron, which aims to maintain the political foundation of Sino-French relations [1]. - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized a delegation to engage with U.S. companies, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize trade relations between the two countries [1]. - The People's Bank of China plans to conduct a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, reflecting measures to manage liquidity in the financial system [1]. Group 2: Commodity Market Trends Oil - Oil prices saw a slight increase of 1.15% in the overnight session, despite signs of stagnation in the U.S. labor market, with a reported decrease of 9,000 non-farm jobs in November [2][13]. - The likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week is now at 87%, down from 90% earlier, which may influence oil market dynamics [2][14]. - Sanctions on major oil companies are expected to cause short-term supply disruptions, but long-term impacts on the market are deemed unlikely [2][14]. Copper - Copper prices experienced a slight decline, with ongoing tightness in concentrate supply and smelting profits hovering around breakeven [2][19]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported stable electricity investment and positive growth in automotive production, while the real estate sector remains weak [2][19]. - Global copper supply and demand are shifting towards a deficit due to supply disruptions, necessitating close monitoring of the U.S. dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. Group 3: Stock Market Insights - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with significant movements in the machinery sector leading gains, while the comprehensive sector lagged [3][11]. - Anticipation of two major policy meetings in December, namely the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and China's Central Economic Work Conference, is expected to influence market sentiment and capital flows [3][11]. - The overall market is expected to remain cautious until clearer policy signals emerge, with a potential shift in risk appetite following the meetings [3][11].