电力出海：燃气轮机+HRSG行情持续发酵

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant growth and investment opportunities in the gas turbine and HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) sectors, particularly focusing on Siemens Energy and its market dynamics driven by increasing electricity demand and structural changes in the energy sector [1][3]. Group 1: Gas Turbine Market Dynamics - The core challenge in gas turbine production lies in the main engine, which must withstand high temperatures and pressures, with only Siemens Energy, GE, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries capable of manufacturing them [3]. - Siemens Energy has a backlog of orders totaling €138 billion, a 42% increase from 2022, with €65 billion coming from service-related orders, indicating strong demand in the gas services and grid technology sectors [3]. - Global electricity demand is expected to grow nearly 50% over the next decade, with AI and data centers projected to double their electricity consumption in the same period [3]. Group 2: Growth in Gas Services - The gas services segment is identified as the primary growth driver for Siemens Energy, as gas-fired power generation emits half the carbon of coal, making it a viable alternative [4]. - From 2025 to 2035, the global annual increase in gas-fired power generation capacity is expected to reach 90-100 GW, nearly double the average of the past decades, with data centers contributing 15%-20% to this demand [4]. Group 3: Capacity Expansion and Market Demand - Siemens Energy is accelerating capacity expansion, with plans to increase large gas turbine production in Berlin from 35 units per year to 50 by 2027, and to double the medium gas turbine capacity in Sweden to 100 units by 2028 [5]. - The current production capacity is fully booked, with a delivery cycle of 2-3 years, highlighting a tight market supply situation [5]. - Siemens Energy has achieved a 100% attachment rate for long-term service agreements for large gas turbines, with profit margins on new agreements expected to increase by over 500 basis points compared to existing contracts [5]. Group 4: Domestic HRSG Companies' Outlook - The outlook for domestic HRSG companies in international markets appears optimistic, with BYTH's Vietnam project planning four HRSG production lines in phase one and eight in phase two, targeting North American gas turbine contractors [7]. - HRSG units account for only 7-8% of value but represent 30-40% of power generation capacity, with expectations of price increases exceeding 30-40% due to a 50% supply-demand gap [7]. - Xizi Clean Energy has established a strong position in the global high-end HRSG market through successful projects in Pakistan and Nigeria, with products exported to over 50 countries [7].