5万吨仓单一日注销！摩根大通：标志着铜价进入“波动性更强，更急看涨的中场阶段”

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley indicates that the massive cancellation of LME copper inventories marks the entry of the copper market into a volatile "mid-stage," driven by the siphoning effect of the U.S. market, which forces non-U.S. buyers to scramble for spot purchases, leading LME inventories to fall below the 100,000-ton threshold, triggering an asymmetric bullish channel for copper prices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A record cancellation of 50,000 tons of copper warehouse receipts at LME is the largest single-day operation since 2013, signaling the end of the bullish market's "beginning" and indicating a transition to a more volatile and upward trend [3]. - The cancellation event has significantly boosted market sentiment, with LME three-month copper prices rising by 5% over the past week, reaching a new high of over $11,500 per ton [4]. - The ongoing structural tension in the global copper market is a direct response to the strong demand pull from the U.S. market, leading to supply shortages in other regions and forcing them to seek spot resources from LME [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Imbalance - The core basis for the bullish outlook is the severe mismatch in global inventories and the continuous attraction of refined copper to the U.S. market, reshaping global copper trade flows and pricing mechanisms [5]. - The price differential between the U.S. Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and LME remains significant, with the COMEX copper contract for March 2026 trading approximately $390 per ton higher than its LME counterpart [5][8]. - High annual contract premiums are pushing consumers outside the U.S. (such as in Asia and Europe) to abandon high-priced long-term contracts in favor of seeking supplies in the spot market [10]. Group 3: Inventory Levels and Price Mechanisms - The LME's on-warrant inventory has dropped below the critical psychological and technical level of 100,000 tons, which historically indicates a high likelihood of entering a backwardation state where spot prices exceed futures prices [4][11]. - Historical data shows that when LME inventories fall below 100,000 tons, the probability of weekly price increases for three-month copper rises to 57%, with a median weekly increase of 0.64% [13][15]. - The current market conditions suggest a significant upward potential for the backwardation spread, as the current price dynamics indicate a strong bullish signal when inventories are low and decreasing [14][15]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Morgan Stanley outlines a "bull end game" scenario where the ongoing tightness in the refined copper market outside the U.S. leads to continuous consumption of LME inventories, pushing LME prices higher and steepening the backwardation structure [18]. - Despite the clear long-term bullish logic, the market is expected to experience a "tug-of-war" in the short term, as not all major consumer markets have fully adapted to rising copper prices, potentially providing some breathing space [19]. - The company remains confident that short-term opportunistic exports by smelters will not be sufficient to alleviate the overall supply tightness, maintaining a bullish outlook on LME copper prices [19].