大摩“AI供电峰会”要点：美国数据中心“离网”偏好提升，储能成为标配

Core Insights - The article highlights the severe electricity shortage risk faced by U.S. data center developers, with a projected supply-demand gap of 10-20% by 2027-2028 [1][2][3] - There is a significant increase in demand for off-grid solutions due to political and execution risks, with natural gas generators and energy storage systems becoming standard [2][6] - The year 2026 is identified as a critical "Year of Execution," where project execution capabilities will determine stock performance in the sector [2][8] Group 1: Electricity Shortage Crisis - U.S. data center developers are expected to face a 10-20% electricity supply gap in the coming years, particularly in 2027 and 2028 [3][4] - Most new data center project agreements are set for delivery between 2028 and 2030, indicating a potential supply vacuum in 2026 and 2027 [3][4] Group 2: Off-Grid Solutions Demand - The demand for off-grid solutions is surging as developers face increasing challenges with grid access and political backlash from rising residential electricity prices [6][7] - Popular off-grid solutions include natural gas turbines, reciprocating engines, and fuel cells, complemented by battery storage systems [6][7] Group 3: Execution Year and Market Dynamics - Improved trading conditions are anticipated for electricity and data center developers, but significant execution risks remain, making 2026 a pivotal year for project success [8] - The market's core trading logic is shifting towards "time to power," emphasizing the urgency of electricity supply solutions [8][9] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - There is optimism for significant reconfiguration trades of Bitcoin to data centers in 2025 and 2026, providing time advantages and lower execution risks [9] - Companies involved in the natural gas value chain and off-grid solution providers are highlighted as key investment opportunities in the context of AI deployment bottlenecks [9]