如何看待近期人民币汇率的变化︱重阳问答

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a weakening dollar index and improved market sentiment towards the RMB, following a period of trade tensions and policy adjustments [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Changes - Since late November, the offshore RMB has appreciated over 550 pips, while the onshore RMB has appreciated over 400 pips, indicating a return to an appreciation trend [2]. - The RMB's appreciation is supported by a weakening dollar index, which has declined by 1% from its peak, aligning with the RMB's appreciation [2][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing RMB Appreciation - The driving force behind the RMB's appreciation is the increase in foreign exchange settlement (结汇) by exporters, which had been low earlier due to tariff impacts and unstable exchange rate expectations [3]. - Since the third quarter, there has been a notable improvement in the willingness to settle foreign exchange, leading to a compensatory settlement that supports RMB appreciation [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB - Looking ahead, the RMB is expected to continue appreciating slowly, contingent on a further weakening of the dollar index [4]. - The central bank's policy aims for a gradual appreciation of the RMB, with recent indicators suggesting a shift towards preventing rapid appreciation to avoid negative impacts on exports [4]. - The market has priced in three potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve next year, limiting the scope for further declines in long-term US Treasury yields and maintaining the interest rate differential between China and the US [4].