氧化铝为啥跌跌不休？

Market Trends - On December 5, the main contract for alumina futures continued to decline, with the market focus dropping below the 2600 yuan/ton threshold [1] - In the spot market, the average price of domestic alumina was 2810.95 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.71% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core drivers of the current price decline are "supply surplus + cost collapse": domestic alumina production capacity remains at historical highs, with industry inventory and exchange warehouse inventory increasing to 253,000 tons [5] - By the end of November 2025, inventory had risen to nearly 5 million tons, the highest in three years, creating strong price pressure [9] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is capped at 45 million tons, with current operating capacity close to this limit, leading to no incremental demand for alumina [15] Cost Factors - The price of bauxite, a key raw material for alumina production, has dropped significantly from approximately 115 USD/ton at the beginning of 2025 to 70-72 USD/ton, a nearly 40% decrease, which has lowered production costs [12] - The industry's profit margins are being severely compressed due to the combination of falling prices and declining costs, with current prices dropping below the national weighted average full cost [16] Industry Structure and Production Dynamics - The integrated structure of the industry has weakened the motivation for production cuts, as many large companies own both upstream alumina and downstream electrolytic aluminum capacities [21] - Despite losses, companies prefer to maintain operations due to the complex production process of alumina, which can lead to significant economic losses if production is halted [21] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue facing downward pressure on prices due to ongoing supply surplus and high inventory levels, with limited improvement in demand [19] - The potential for production cuts remains low, and the market is likely to see weak price performance in the near term [17][19]