A股策略｜A股短期重回轮动

Core Viewpoint - The static PE valuation has become high after nearly a year of expansion, but the ERP remains at a reasonable level due to the decline in the risk-free interest rate. The long-term productivity upgrades and technological transformation outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" will continue to catalyze structural market trends. The improvement in the domestic demand sector's fundamentals is expected to rely on increased growth-stabilizing policies. Before confirming fundamental improvements, liquidity is anticipated to be the key driver of the market. The core themes for A-shares in the coming year are AI, self-sufficiency, and high-value exports [2]. Group 1 - The market is expected to see a new entry opportunity if adjustments occur, supported by the resilience of A-share liquidity and potential policy stimulus from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December [2]. - A balanced allocation between dividends and technology is deemed necessary for short-term market defense, with a focus on large-cap stocks due to the influx of passive funds this year [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes investment in self-sufficiency, commercialization of emerging industries, and innovative monetary and fiscal policies, which are likely to positively impact A-shares [2]. Group 2 - Investors are advised to increase attention to self-sufficiency themes in both China and the U.S., particularly in military trade, innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductor domestic substitution, AI infrastructure, commercial aerospace, 6G infrastructure, and industrial control/software [2]. - Technology sectors such as pharmaceuticals and military industries are expected to lead the market adjustments, alongside the resurgence of new energy (energy storage exports) since September [2].