管涛：不宜押注人民币汇率的单边走势｜宏观经济

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the Chinese yuan (RMB) against the US dollar, highlighting a rebound in the RMB exchange rate after a prolonged period of depreciation, and emphasizes the need for adaptability to a new normal of two-way fluctuations in the currency market [1][2]. Summary by Sections RMB Exchange Rate Performance - In 2023, the RMB has shown resilience against external shocks, with the onshore RMB appreciating by 1.55% in the first eleven months, the spot exchange rate rising by 3.10%, and the offshore RMB (CNH) increasing by 3.76% [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has experienced a significant narrowing of volatility, with the maximum fluctuation of the onshore midpoint rate at 1.9%, the lowest since 2016, and the spot rate's maximum fluctuation at 3.8%, also the lowest since 2016 [4]. Stability Measures and Market Reactions - The Chinese government has emphasized maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, which has led to reduced exchange rate elasticity and suppressed depreciation pressures [5][4]. - In September, the bank's foreign exchange settlement surplus surged to $73.4 billion, the second-highest since the 2015 exchange rate reform, but dropped to $27.3 billion in October, indicating that the market's expectations for RMB appreciation may have been overstated [8]. Factors Influencing Future RMB Trends - Several factors are contributing to the recent optimism regarding the RMB, including potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, discussions between Chinese and US leaders, and the possibility of a more stable US-China trade relationship [10][11]. - The Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery, supported by proactive macroeconomic policies and structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity and innovation [12]. Challenges and Uncertainties - Despite positive trends, the RMB faces uncertainties due to domestic economic challenges, external trade environment fluctuations, and the potential strength of the US dollar [13][14][15]. - The article suggests that while the RMB may break the 7.0 mark against the dollar, its ability to maintain stability below this level remains uncertain, depending on future policy directions and market conditions [16].