国泰海通｜固收：2026年货币政策展望：目标函数和宽松模式重构

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of monetary policy in China, highlighting a shift towards a more nuanced approach that balances liquidity management and financial stability, particularly in the context of the bond market and economic growth support. Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook for 2025 - In 2025, the overall liquidity environment is characterized as "quantitative easing plus stability," with a focus on enhancing the execution and transmission of monetary policy rather than aggressive counter-cyclical adjustments [1] - The central bank has been iterating its tools since mid-2024 to improve liquidity control and guide bond market pricing, providing relatively cheap medium- to long-term funds without signaling clear interest rate cuts [1] - The optimization of liquidity tools serves a dual purpose: to avoid concentrated speculation around loose monetary expectations while enhancing the sensitivity of major banks to central bank liquidity injections [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Goals for 2026 - The monetary policy in 2026 is expected to maintain a supportive stance, with a significant change in the target function emphasizing that "broad credit" does not equate to indiscriminate "broad loans" for households and enterprises [2] - With fiscal policy beginning to take effect, the role of monetary policy will shift towards providing a stable liquidity environment to support fiscal growth, ensuring the stability of the financial system and avoiding systemic risks [2] - The focus will be on improving interest rate transmission within the financial system and stabilizing the interest margin as a core observation indicator [2] Group 3: Central Bank Operations and Interest Rate Adjustments - The central bank is likely to continue a "quantitative easing plus stability" approach, with the overnight interest rate lower limit around OMO-10bp, and will focus on "lengthening" funding in the medium to long term [3] - The central bank may implement 1-2 interest rate cuts totaling 10-20 basis points throughout 2025 and 2026, primarily responding to key statements and unlocking long-term funding costs [3] - The timing of interest rate cuts may depend on the effectiveness of reducing bank funding costs, particularly through lowering deposit rates, potentially delaying until mid-2026 [3] Group 4: Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR) Adjustments - The necessity for RRR cuts is expected to decrease, with only one potential cut of 50 basis points anticipated in 2026, likely occurring in the first quarter [4] - The central bank's motivation for RRR cuts is relatively low due to the opportunity cost of releasing long-term funds and a cautious stance on large-scale long-term funding injections [4] - Government bond purchases may serve as a substitute for RRR cuts, with the first quarter being the most probable window for any RRR adjustments [4]