彭博：下周降息已成共识，美银Hartnett担心：美联储若过于鸽派，可能终结美股圣诞反弹行情？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the prevailing expectation on Wall Street for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with major banks like Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Bank of America shifting their forecasts towards this outcome. However, there are warnings that overly dovish signals could mislead the market about the severity of economic slowdown, potentially leading to a sell-off in long-term government bonds and impacting the stock market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Major banks have changed their stance to expect a rate cut in December, influenced by weak economic data and dovish comments from key Federal Reserve officials [4]. - The swap market indicates that investor bets on a 25 basis point cut on December 10 have surged from 60% a month ago to over 90%, with expectations of three rate cuts by September 2026 fully priced in [3][4]. - Morgan Stanley now anticipates rate cuts in January and April, adjusting their previous forecast, while Bank of America predicts cuts in June and July [5]. Group 2: Market Risks - Bank of America strategist Hartnett warns that overly dovish signals from the Fed could imply a greater economic slowdown than expected, which may trigger a sell-off in long-term bonds and affect the stock market [5][6]. - The S&P 500 index is currently about 0.5% away from its historical high, but a dovish stance from the Fed could lead to market sell-offs [3][6]. - Hartnett's team suggests that investors prepare for potential government intervention in the economy, recommending investments in undervalued mid-cap stocks and sectors related to the economic cycle [6]. Group 3: Internal Fed Disagreements - A Bloomberg survey indicates that a significant majority of economists expect a split vote at the upcoming Fed meeting, reflecting increasing tensions within the Federal Open Market Committee [7]. - Some Fed officials, including Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid, are expected to vote against the rate cut due to concerns over inflation [8]. - The divergence in opinions among Fed officials stems from differing assessments of the balance between price stability and full employment, with some expressing worries about persistent inflation driven by tariffs [8][10]. Group 4: Economic Data Signals - Recent economic data has provided mixed signals, with large companies announcing layoffs while weekly unemployment claims remain low [9]. - The Labor Department has not released updated inflation reports due to a government shutdown, complicating the decision-making process for the Fed [9][10]. - Most economists view a significant weakening of the labor market as the primary challenge for policymakers, with only a minority considering severe inflation as a greater risk [10].