美联储关注的9月核心PCE通胀2.8%大体符合预期，实际个人支出停滞

Core Insights - The US PCE price index for September rose by 0.3% month-on-month, matching expectations and previous values, while the year-on-year increase was 2.8%, in line with expectations and slightly up from 2.7% in the previous month [1][3][2] - The core PCE price index also saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, consistent with expectations and previous values, and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, aligning with Bloomberg's expectations but slightly below Dow Jones' forecast of 2.9% [5][6][4] - Personal income exceeded expectations, while consumer spending fell short, indicating financial strain among consumers prior to the government shutdown [11][7] Inflation Indicators - The SuperCore PCE, which excludes food and energy, saw a slight decline to 3.25% year-on-year, attributed to stagnation in the financial services and accommodation sectors [9] - The report highlighted that the PCE price index is a key reference for the Federal Reserve in formulating inflation policy, with core PCE being viewed as a better indicator of long-term inflation trends [10] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending showed stagnation, with actual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remaining flat month-on-month, indicating a slowdown in the primary growth engine of the US economy [14][16] - The report noted a significant drop in goods spending, the largest since May, driven by rising prices in non-durable goods such as gasoline and clothing [15][16] Market Reactions - Following the release of the inflation data, US stock markets continued to rise, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting [17] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all saw increases of around 0.5%, while the semiconductor index rose by 2.1% [17]