Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy in 2026, suggesting a strengthening of coordination, optimization of structure, and deepening of reforms during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [5][6]. - The article discusses the potential implications of Japan's "loose fiscal and tight monetary" policy combination, warning of possible reversals in carry trade and the need to be cautious about the divergence and shifts in monetary policy between the US and Japan [5][6]. Group 2 - The data commentary indicates that the PMI recovery in November was limited, primarily influenced by high inventory levels and the fading effects of the holiday season [9]. - The article notes that US retail sales in September were weaker than expected, leading to a significant increase in gold and silver prices, with COMEX gold rising by 3.4% to $4223.9 per ounce [11].
申万宏观·周度研究成果（11.29-12.5）
申万宏源宏观·2025-12-06 04:34